The Vodacom Bulls get a week off ahead of their home semifinal but they will be watching the two eliminators with interest as their opponents are as yet undecided.
Crusaders v Reds
The Crusaders would have been a bit disappointed not to have bagged the 4 try bonus point in their final match against the Hurricanes in Christchurch but it was their 4th successive victory and maintained a 100% home record. A number of the key players including Dagg and Carter have stepped up in recent weeks and the return of Read from injury has been massive.
The Reds just scraped by the Waratahs in Sydney in their final match but they have been a mixed bag on the road winning 3, losing 4 and drawing once.
Head to Head and Playoff Stats
The Reds have won 3 of the last 4 matches at all grounds, but the Crusaders beat them 15-11 in Christchurch earlier this season and they have won their last 6 home matches against the Reds. The Crusaders playoff pedigree is unparalleled and they have won all 14 eliminators, semi’s or finals that they have hosted.
The Reds have had less playoff experience and lost to the Sharks in Brisbane in last year’s eliminator but they did win the tournament in 2011.
Verdict
The Crusaders start this game as 8 point favourites and the bookies look to have got this right. The Reds will fight hard but the Crusaders are on the up and I think they will win this by more than a score.
Brumbies v Cheetahs
The Brumbies suffered a shock 15-21 reverse against the Force last week and with the Bulls failing to collect a bonus point later in the round it potentially cost them a straight march to the semifinals (I say potentially because the Bulls may have entered the game against the Stormers with a different attitude had the home semi not been secured). The Brumbies have won 6 out of 8 home matches with a loss to the Crusaders and a shock draw to the Kings.
The Cheetahs have had a week off after securing their playoff spot when they beat the Blues in Bloemfontein. They have done well on the road winning 5 from 8 matches including victories over Australian sides, the Force and the Waratahs, on tour.
Head to Head and Playoff Stats
The sides last met in 2012 with the Brumbies winning a tight one 24-23 in Canberra. They have won all 4 home matches against the Cheetahs and the games have tended to be high scoring and average 62 points each.
This will be the Brumbies 1st knock out match since 2004, but they have some good pedigree with 5 semifinal wins in 6 attempts and all 4 home semifinals have been won by 13 points or more.
The Cheetahs will play their 1st playoff match.
Verdict
The Cheetahs may have benefitted from the rest as they have not been at their best of late. They will no doubt show plenty of intent but I think the Brumbies will be too strong and will win by more than the 7 point start that the bookmakers are giving the visitors.
Predictions
Crusaders by more than 8
Brumbies by more than 7
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